Archives September 2022

Low-Beta Stocks Shield Investors From Volatility

Volatility has headlined the market following the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, was rather hawkish in his comments.

Powell believes bringing inflation down will take some time, adding that the plan will, unfortunately, “bring some pain to households and businesses.”

Needless to say, the market didn’t react well to the comments, as they essentially crushed any hopes that the Fed would soon reverse its rate-hike trajectory.

Pairing these remarks with the fact that we’re about to break into September, a historically weak month in the market, gives investors plenty of valid reasons to consider a defense-first approach.

 

For investors looking to shield themselves against volatility, stocks that carry low betas would provide precisely that.

Stocks with a beta of less than 1.0 are less volatile than the general market, and those with a beta of higher than 1.0 are more volatile than the general market.

Three companies that carry a beta of less than 1.0 include H&R Block HRB, Kellogg Company K, and American Electric Power Company AEP.

Below is a chart illustrating the year-to-date share performance of all three companies with the S&P 500 blended in as a benchmark.

Zacks Investment Research
 
Let’s take a closer look at both companies:

H&R Block

H&R Block HRB is the world’s largest income tax filing company, offering income tax return filing services for salaried individuals via three distinct methods: free online e-filing, assisted tax e-filing, and in-person tax e-filing.

The company carries a beta of 0.69.

In addition, H&R Block’s forward earnings multiple resides at a nice 12.2X, representing a steep 42% discount relative to its Consumer Discretionary Sector. The company carries a Style Score of an A for Value.

Zacks Investment Research
 

HRB has been on an impressive earnings streak, exceeding the Consensus EPS Estimate in six consecutive quarters. Top-line results have also been robust, with H&R block chaining together ten straight revenue beats.

Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
 

Furthermore, the company rewards its shareholders via its annual dividend yielding 2.3%, much higher than its Consumer Discretionary Sector average of 0.9%.

H&R Block has upped its dividend payout four times over the last five years, undoubtedly a major positive.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research

Kellogg Company

Kellogg Company K manufactures and markets ready-to-eat convenience foods, with a balanced portfolio of cereal and snack products.

Kellogg Company carries a beta of 0.43.

The company’s shares trade at solid valuation multiples, further displayed by its Style Score of a B for Value. K’s forward earnings multiple resides at 17.9X, representing a sizable 12% discount relative to its Consumer Staples Sector.

Zacks Investment Research

In addition, Kellogg’s has consistently exceeded quarterly estimates – the company has surpassed bottom and top-line estimates in nine of its previous ten quarters.

Kellogg’s dividend metrics also deserve a highlight – the company’s annual dividend yields a sizable 3.1%, much higher than its Zacks Consumer Staples Sector average of an already steep 2.6%.

Furthermore, the company has upped its dividend payout five times over the last five years.

Zacks Investment Research
 

Is Apple a Buy ahead of (inflationary) iPhone 14 release ?

Apple stock is up over 15% in the last two months as investors bank on higher prices for the iPhone 14 family and speculate on new augmented reality glasses from the tech giant.

  • Price Target: $185

  • Rating: Buy (reiterated)

  • Stock Price movement assumed: +16%

 

Call on iPhone pricing:

In our Apple model we assume iPhone 14 is launched at the same launch prices as iPhone 13, . However, with an inflationary backdrop, Apple could choose to increase the price of the Pro models (high end consumer less sensitive to price) and leave the lower end models unchanged.

If Apple were to raise pro-model prices by $50,”  , “we estimate a $0.20 EPS tailwind. We look at a scenario where Apple raises iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max prices by $50 each, while lowering prices for iPhone 14/14 Max by $50. We estimate about $0.10 benefit if 10 million incremental iPhone units are sold.

Apple has launched a new version of the iPhone around the start of its fiscal year for the past 14 years. The stock has seen double-digit growth for many of those years and even saw triple-digit growth in fiscal year 2020.

Bring on the new iPhone, says Apple investors.
 
Bring on the new iPhone, says Apple investors. (Chart: BofA)
Long-term thesis on Apple:

Our Buy rating on Apple is based on a number of factors: “1) strong iPhone upgrade cycle in fiscal year 2023 driven by the need for higher connectivity which will enable new AR/VR applications, 2) higher growth in services revenues, 3) expectation that the multiple will re-rate higher as has been the case before major product launches, 4) continuing strong capital returns, 5) Apple likely to charge for App and in-App purchases outside the App store, and 6) shares likely to outperform in a broader market down cycle.”

Tech industry update:

Second-quarter earnings season for a large chunk of large-cap tech companies has been mixed, at best.

Companies such as HP have warned about slowing growth in PCs as consumers pull back on spending.

Meanwhile, Salesforce recently warned about cooling sales for enterprise clients. And companies like Snap are laying off workers in droves to combat a slowdown in the advertising market.

From the Yahoo Finance Live archives: HP CEO Enrique Lores weighs in on demand for PCs

“So this is something that we were expecting, a slowdown in consumer, but clearly the slowdown was bigger than we were expecting,” HP CEO Enrique Lores told Yahoo Finance Live following a sales miss late Tuesday.